Because stats are fun, even when they’re useless

Since 2002 I’ve kept score at every baseball game I’ve attended. Particularly, this focuses on the Mariners and the Bellingham Bells, but there are other games in other places sprinkled in. Essentially, this is so that I can have a record of the games I’ve seen, and what happens. Plus I like doing it.

Then I started compiling statistics on Excel for the games I attended. These statistics are essentially meaningless, for multiple reasons, but two especially: The sample sizes, in terms of at bats or innings pitched, are ridiculously small; and that my presence at a game does not in any way affect the quality of play. (Sites like FanGraphs chart the importance of every action on the field, as it affects the likely outcome, but they are yet to incorporate individual attendance.) In keeping a record of the “best players when I’m at the game,” I generally use the average of all ABs or IPs as a cut off, to try to weed out the super-small samples. Somehow, though, I can still end up with a stat line like this:

Here we have hapless Miguel Olivo, seen in five games, starting four. I saw 18 ABs (one above the average), which resulted in 10 hits, 3 of them doubles and 4 of them home runs. As a result, .556/.579/1.389, which is absolutely ridiculous. Projected out over a 162-game season, assuming he played every game, Miguel would have 130 HRs. Not gonna happen. Miguel’s actual career 162-game average is .240/.278/.408, with 16 HR. While all the figures show a massive drop-off, the on-base and slugging percentages are particularly telling. If he was still the Mariners’ starting catcher, I would have seen a significant downward turn, over time. Still, he sure liked it when I was in the stands, eh?

Let’s look, then, at a larger sample. At the game last weekend, where I got a sunburn and saw a win, I saw Ichiro!’s 100th live AB. While this is far from a relevant sample, it does present a better picture of the hitter overall.

Ichiro!‘s line stands at .452/.487/.673. As you can see, I’ve seen Ichiro! in 25 games, about a seventh of a season. His career 162-game line is .330/.376/.438. In 2004, his BA was .372 and his OBP was .414. His highest SLG was .457, in 2001. I’ve also seen 3 Ichiro! home runs. That projects out to 19 HR, higher than his career average of 11 and career high of 15. Projections for 51 doubles and 19 triples are also well above Ichiro!’s average, accounting for his significantly higher slugging percentage.

However, it is also clear that Ichiro! likes to hear me cheering for him. Let’s hope that continues next weekend.